Writing

Essays, ideas, and explorations — from research to reflection.

Modelling Right-Censored Data in Stan with CmdStanPy

06 August 2025 • 4 min read

bayesian inference stan survival analysis

A hands-on introduction to Bayesian inference using Stan to model patient wait times in a clinic. By fitting a Gamma distribution with right-censoring, we capture uncertainty in both model parameters and unseen outcomes, showcasing how Bayesian methods naturally handle incomplete data where traditional tools fall short.

From Priors to Predictions: An Intuitive Introduction to Bayesian Inference

02 August 2025 • 8 min read

bayesian inference uncertainty

An intuitive introduction to Bayesian inference, from Bayes' theorem and likelihoods to hands-on modelling with Gamma-distributed wait times. We show how Bayesian methods estimate full distributions over parameters, quantify uncertainty, and enable probabilistic predictions, wrapping up with a practical example using Stan.

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